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コロナウイルスにより外出自粛が求められた2020年のGWですが、皆さんはどのように過ごされましたか。
普段であれば、新幹線に乗って帰省や旅行と言う人も多いと思いますが、今年に限っては自宅でゆっくり過ごされた事でしょう。
これにより大打撃を受けているのは新幹線をはじめとした交通機関です。
特に東海道新幹線は毎年、GW期間中に約500万人を移動させるのですが、今年は自由席乗車率が0％の列車が存在したほど、閑散としていました。
外出自粛に協力的な人が多く、本当に素晴らしい事なのですが、これにより心配されているのがJR東海の今後です。
そこで今回はGW中に東海道新幹線がどれだけ稼いだのかをまとめてみました。
2020年GWの輸送人員と売上予想
2020年のGW期間中の輸送人員は前年同期比と比べて、6％の乗車率でした。
人数にすると約30万人です。
これだけを見ると多いように感じますが、前年が約500万人でしたので、圧倒的に少ない事が分かります。
具体的にどれほど少ないのかと言うと、1編成16両の列車に平均して80名ほどしか乗っていない計算です。
乗車区間が短い人もいるので、実際に同時に乗っている人は半数の40名程度だと予想できます。
1編成1323名の定員に対して40名しか乗っていないのですから、異常なほどに空いている事が分かると思います。
1両に平均2.5人しかいないのですから、ほぼ貸し切り状態と言えるでしょう。
売上については1人当たりの平均売上が1万円だとしても30億円です。
こう考えると、多いようにも見えますが、13日間で30億円しか稼げていないので、1日にすると2億3000万円程度です。
JR東海の従業員だけでも1万8000名程度いるので、1日の日給が1万円だとしても、1億8000万円は必ず必要になってきます。
それに合わせて子会社人件費、電気代、メンテナンス費を考えると、大赤字である事が分かります。
売上の9割が東海道新幹線に頼っている状況なので、コロナウイルスによる自粛が続く限り、かなり厳しい経営になっていく事が予想されます。
JR東海は復活できるのか？
旅行需要が落ちているのはもちろん、ビジネス利用も出張の自粛により大幅に落ちています。
正直なところ、JR東海にとってはGW期間中の売上など、それほど大きな物ではなく、普段の出張需要の方がよっぽど大きな比率となっています。
なので、テレワークやzoom会議が当たり前になってくると、JR東海としては大きな損害になってしまいます。
しかし、個人的な見解としては、大きな影響はないと考えています。
理由は、自粛が終わればこれまでのように出張が増えると思われるからです。
zoom会議でも十分に成り立つと言えば、成り立ちますが、古い体質の企業は、やはり対面をやりたがります。
無駄と分かっていながらも、対面営業を望んでしまうので、本当に愚かとしか言いようがありませんが、50代以降の人はそれが当たり前なので仕方ないでしょう。
ただし、時代が変わり若い世代が権力を持てば少しずつ状況が変わってくると思います。
リニア中央新幹線は計画通り進むのか？
コロナウイルスの影響により心配されているのリニア中央新幹線計画です。
需要が大幅に減ってる事もあり、本当に必要なのか疑問となる部分もありますが、こちらに関しては問題なく進められると思います。
理由は、リニア中央新幹線の目的が地震対策にあるからです。
近い将来に発生すると予想されている東海地震・東南海地震により、東海道新幹線は長期間の不通が予想されています。
9割近くを東海道新幹線に頼る、JR東海としては、その期間の売上がゼロになります。
それを回避するのがリニア中央新幹線です。
迂回ルートを作る事で、万が一の災害時でも売上確保が出来ます。
なので、今回のコロナウイルスに関係なく、リニア中央新幹線はJR東海が倒産しない限り問題なく進む事でしょう。
ただし、開通時期については少し遅れる可能性もあります。
以上が、JR東海GWの利用者数・売上情報と、今後の予想でした。
公共交通機関として倒産はあり得ないと思っていますが、世間の常識が大きく変わってしまえば、次の一手を考えなくてはいけない状況だと思います。
観光列車に力を入れてこなかったJR東海ですが、今後は観光列車など、移動＝エンタメの要素を増やしてくるかもしれませんね。
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