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コロナウイルスの影響もあり、中小企業をはじめとした様々な企業の倒産が始まっています。
今のところは、もともと危なかった企業がコロナウイルスをきっかけに倒産してしまったという感じなのですが、これからは優良企業であっても倒産するケースが増えて来るでしょう。
流石に大手企業は大丈夫だろうと考えている人も多いようですが、今回に限っては、そのような事も無いと思います。
大手企業が倒産するとすれば、どのような業種が危ないのか予想してみました。
航空業界・交通業界
一番危ない業界は航空業界・交通業界です。
このまま長期化すれば、大手航空会社の日本航空や全日本空輸であってもかなり危ない状況になることでしょう。
また、LCCも航空機のリース代が負担になり、既にかなり危ない状況です。
大手2社が完全に消滅することはないでしょうが、民事再生法や会社更生法が適用される可能性は十分に考えられます。
これから様々な融資を受けると思うので、本当に倒産をする頃には、日本の倒産企業の中で過去最高を更新する事も予想されます。
その他の交通業界も同様で、公共性の高いJR系を除いてはどこも危ないでしょう。
JR系に関しては、流石に国の援助が入ると思うので倒産法を適用することは無いと思いますが、大手私鉄レベルであれば、倒産法を適用せざる得ない状況になるかもしれません。
もちろん、バスやタクシーなどは、そもそも余剰金が少ないので早期に倒産する企業が続出すると考えられます。
広告系業界
電通や博報堂など広告代理店をはじめ、広告収入が主なメディアもかなり危ない状況です。
理由は不景気の時代において一番最初に削られるのが広告費だからです。
実際にすでに影響は出ており、広告収入を主とするユーチューバーは、かなり収入が下がってきています。
外出自粛で再生数は増えても、広告出稿数が下がってきているので、大幅な収入減になっているようです。
それに伴って、大手ユーチューバー事務所のUUUMも相当危ないとの噂もあります。
最近オフィスを拡大した事も、負担増につながっており、株価も最盛期の半値以下まで落ちています。
また、広告系はコロナウイルスが終息したところで、景気が戻らない限りは、これまでのように稼げないというのも危ないポイントの一つです。
なので、大手企業であってもかなり危ない状況になるのは間違い無いでしょう。
旅行業界
旅館・ホテル・観光地・旅行代理店など旅行業界も長期化すればかなり深刻な状態になります。
というより、すでに体力のない企業は倒産に追い込まれています。
特に旅館業の廃業が目立っており、この数ヶ月でかなりの数が廃業に追いやられました。
大手企業も例外では無く、近畿日本ツーリスト・クラブツーリズムを傘下におくKNT-CTホールディングスは、2020年3月期の連結最終損益が98億円の赤字になることを発表しました。(前期は12億円の黒字)
他の大手企業も大幅な収入減を記録しており、人材を多数抱える大手企業ほど危ないと言われています。
ただ、コロナウイルスの終息宣言後は、一定数の需要が復活するので、そこまで耐える事ができれば、なんとかなる業種なのかと思います。
イベント業界
イベント業界もコロナウイルスにより危ない業界の一つです。
ただ、こちらも旅行と同じで終息後は一定の需要が戻ります。
また、箱を運営する企業でなければ、維持費もそれほどかからないので、半年程度であれば、持ち堪える企業も多くあるでしょう。
ただ、長期化した場合は大手企業であっても危ないかもしれません。
例えば、チケットぴあは、売上がほとんどなくなり、維持費のみがかかっていきます。
さらに、自社の箱もあるので、それも大きな負担となっていくことでしょう。
他にも制作会社もかなり危険な状態です。
特にリアルイベントのみに力を入れてきた企業は、長期化すると全滅するような気がします。
以上が、コロナウイルスにより大手企業であっても危ない業界でした。
正直、長期化すればするほど、どんな業種であっても危ないのは一緒です。
その中でも、特に危ないという業種が今回ご紹介した業種です。
「大手企業は潰れない」というのは過去の時代です。
これからは、大手企業でも体力がなくなれば普通に潰れていくと思います。
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